US Senators Cindy Hyde-Smith and Roger Wicker lead their respective opponents in the latest Y’all Politics poll conducted by Triumph Campaigns on July 30 and 31. 2,100 Mississippians were polled across each of the four congressional districts.
The poll also surveyed respondents on favorability/unfavorability of US Senate candidates and looked at the job approval ratings of President Trump. This poll was conducted using similar methodology to a widely cited poll conducted by Y’all Politics/Triumph Campaigns in April.
US Senate Special Election
The most-watched election race in Mississippi this cycle is the special election to fill the seat of former Senator Thad Cochran, who resigned in 2018 due to health concerns.
In the four way ballot test, Cindy Hyde-Smith polled at 41% over her primary rival Mike Espy, who polled at 27%. State senator Chris McDaniel is polling a distant third at 15%. There are still a fair number of voters undecided as we head into the home stretch of the campaign cycle (16%).
Digging deeper into the numbers, Hyde-Smith led her opponents in three of the four congressional districts. She had 41/33 fav/unfav. Espy led his opponents in his former congressional district and featured a 33/30 fav/unfav. Chris McDaniel remains underwater with an overall 16/49 fav/unfav.
US Senate Regular Election
US Senator Roger Wicker seems to be in solid position to win re-election. The poll shows him comfortably leading Democratic nominee David Baria 53/32. Third party candidates Shawn O’Hara and Danny Bedwell are below 2% each, and 11.5% are undecided.
Wicker’s net favorables remain high at +17. Baria’s net favorables are +9, but he remains largely unknown by the general electorate with 62% undecided.
President Trump
President Trump remains popular in the Magnolia State with a 51/39 approve/disapprove rating. In 2016, he won the state with just under 58%.
A full 50% of Mississippians say that President Trump’s support of a candidate makes them more likely to support that candidate versus 38% that say a Trump endorsement makes their candidate support less likely.
Analysis
It doesn’t appear as if much has changed since the last poll in April. On the Special Senate race, it appears that Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith’s name ID has improved and that she is consolidating support relative to her opponents. Mike Espy appears to remain in the early stages of his candidacy and appears at this point to simply be consolidating his base. Chris McDaniel continues to have high net unfavorables and to run a distant third.
The bottom line from this poll – Senator Hyde-Smith appears to be able to advance to a runoff and defeat Espy. However, it’s still a large question about whether McDaniel could beat Espy head-to-head reminiscent of the Alabama special Senate race debacle of 2017.
The other US Senate races and the balance of the congressional races polled show no surprises with incumbents showing substantial leads.
President Trump remains popular throughout the state with solid double digit job approval ratings in every district but the second district. His total job approval is over 51%. He carried Mississippi with 58% of the vote in 2016. Along those same lines, 50% of Mississippians said that Trump’s support of a candidate makes them either much more or somewhat more likely to support that candidate. As many have speculated that Trump will make an endorsement in the special election, as he did with Roger Wicker in the regular US Senate election, his support will go a long way to deciding who Republicans will favor.
Survey Information
Y’all Politics commissioned the poll from Triumph Campaigns. This is on the heels of similar surveys over the past year. This survey was an IVR (interactive voice response) poll conducted on July 30 & 31 in households through the state. There were 525 completed surveys each of the four congressional districts for a total of 2,100 respondents. The poll results have been weighted by political party response. The margin of error is +/- 3.5%.
A full tabulation of the results is shown below and information is available in each congressional district.
YallPolitics Statewide Survey Results 080918 by yallpolitics on Scribd
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