Vance outperformed debate expectations. Does it matter?

• Russ Latino offers 5 takeaways from the only vice-presidential debate of the 2024 election cycle.

Tuesday night, U.S. Senator J.D. Vance (R-OH) squared off against Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) in the only scheduled vice-presidential debate before November’s election. It’s likely the last debate of the 2024 cycle.

Viewers came into the event with a lower opinion and lower expectations of the Republican hopeful. Both pundits and snap polls conducted after the debate put Vance as the winner of the exchange.

Here are 5 quick takeaways:

1. Refreshingly Civil and Substantive

In a political era defined less by policy and more by the sharpness of elbows, last night’s debate harkened back to a kinder and more substantive time. Both Vance and Walz extended each other grace and empathy throughout the debate.

Walz at one point relayed a story about his son, Gus, witnessing a community shooting. Vance responded, “Tim, first of all, I didn’t know that your 17-year-old witnessed a shooting, and I’m sorry about that and I hope he’s doing OK,” he said. “Christ, have mercy, it is awful.”

It was emblematic of the tone struck throughout the debate, and candidly, refreshing.

2. Hillbilly Elegy Vance, Nervous Tim

Vance was catapulted onto the public scene after writing the New York Times best seller Hillbilly Elegy, a raw and personal exposition on growing up poor in places left behind. Last night, America got to see Hillbilly Elegy J.D. and not Twitter bro J.D. It was a better look for him. He was in command from the opening bell. Calm, polite, and in control of facts with no outlandish claims or abrasive barbs. Vance arguably presented the most cohesive, and at times, conciliatory, version of Trumpism to date.

Walz was reportedly nervous about the debate. It showed early as he stumbled over questions he should have anticipated, including a very awkward exchange over past embellishments. With time, he hit a decent stride, scoring points on abortion and the 2020 election.

If the goal of the debate for Vance was to soften his and the ticket’s image, he deserves high marks.

3. Will Anyone Speak for Unborn?

Polls have turned against Republicans on the issue of abortion since the Dobbs case overturning Roe v. Wade. Walz accused the Republican ticket of attempting to implement a national ban on abortion, and further, of working to end in vitro fertilization. Vance pushed back on those claims, noting that Trump has consistently said he opposes a national ban and wants to protect IVF.

But the Republican hopeful played defense throughout the exchange, which stayed exclusively in the realm of a woman’s right to choose. There was no mention of why many conservatives and Republicans have historically opposed abortion — the life and rights of an unborn child. Vance even conceded that Republicans had a lot to learn on the issue.

4. Convergence Around Big Government Control of the Economy

Vance and Walz frequently agreed throughout the debate — see civility point above. But if you watched closely, much of that agreement centered around economic populism: bigger government with more control over the economy and more handouts to favored groups.

If you came up as a Reagan Republican who believed in limited government, free markets and individual responsibility, there’s scant evidence of that philosophy left in either major political party and a lot of convergence around government as society’s chief problem solver.

5. It Very Likely Doesn’t Matter

Vice presidential debates historically do little to move the needle. Last night’s civility might have been a result of risk mitigation. It’s almost impossible to score a knockout punch in a Veep debate, but it is possible to self-inflict a wound.

Both candidates needed to avoid pooping the bed with a negative sound bite and both largely did so.