Will Mississippi State be better on offense?

• New Head Coach Jeff Lebby’s track record suggests the Bulldogs will clear the 2023 bar by a wide margin.

The idea that things will be better because they can’t be worse is a trap fraught with peril. Yet optimism for offense at Mississippi State is an alluring temptation.

The Bulldogs were on solid ground and trending up under Mike Leach. They cautiously celebrated the start of the Zach Arnett Era after Leach’s untimely passing in December of 2022.

Arnett sought to move away from Leach’s Air Raid offense, and boy did he. The Bulldogs ranked No. 101 in total offense,  No. 105 in scoring and No. 109 in passing.

Arnett didn’t make it to the Egg Bowl.

Could it get any worse?

The answer is always yes, but this time it won’t. 

There’s nothing in Jeff Lebby’s past to suggest such dismal results even in his new role of head coach. 

Creating this aura as a guru on one side of the football is one thing, but sitting in the big chair is something else. Time will tell whether Lebby checks all the necessary boxes to build a winning program in Starkville.

He does check the boxes to build on the foundation with exciting offense, and he’ll quickly surpass the meager bar that precedes him.

Two major problems contributed to State’s offensive struggles a year ago. One was self-inflicted, the other was not.

Any move away from such a distinct system as the Air Raid means a lot of change for players. Barbay acknowledged that during spring drills in 2023.

“We are trying to take the install really slow for these guys because everything that we’re asking them to do is a little bit different from the Air Raid,” he said in March. “We’re conscious of that and making sure that we go slow with our install and really being detailed with every little piece of the game.”

The Bulldogs in Week 2 struggled to sustain drives against Arizona but stayed afloat with four turnovers committed by the Wildcats before winning in overtime.

They were trashed at home the following week by LSU.

Quarterback Will Rogers looked confused, and the entire offense looked out of sync in the SEC opener.

A player of Rogers’ experience, it would seem, could have handled transition somewhat better, but when things weren’t going well against the Tigers, Barbay wasn’t able to help Rogers help the Bulldogs.

The OU years for Lebby

While new realities began to settle in for State fans, Lebby was tearing it up at Oklahoma, his second season as Brent Venables’ offensive coordinator. The Sooners ranked third in total yards, fourth in scoring, sixth in passing yards and sixth in passing efficiency.

It was Lebby’s second season in Norman and his second with Dillon Gabriel at quarterback, the two reuniting after their time together at UCF.

The Sooners were more run-oriented in the duo’s first season together, but the numbers – No. 10 on the ground and 32.8 points a game – far exceeded State’s production last year.

Lebby has a transfer quarterback again but has no history with Blake Shapen, who started eight games last year in Baylor’s 3-9 season.

Shapen started 23 games for Baylor, one of them the Big 12 championship game in 2021 when the Bears defeated Oklahoma State 21-16.

He struggled with injuries as Baylor went 3-9 last year. Offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes was gone before Shapen.

State’s QB1 will again face change, but unlike Rogers, who did not choose Barbay, Shapen chose Lebby.

Lebby is expecting a fast start for the entire unit when the Bulldogs open August 31 against Eastern Kentucky.

The heavy lifting on the install was done in the spring, but work remains

“We’re being incredibly aggressive with the install. We want to apply as much pressure as we can mentally and physically, so we can see what guys we can count on,” Lebby said last week. “They’ve taken to it.”

Every game wasn’t LSU for Rogers last year, but matchups against upper-tier SEC foes followed an unfortunate pattern.

Then Rogers got hurt, and that was Arnett’s biggest problem. Rogers a little off his game was far and away State’s best option. Behind Rogers the Bulldogs were not competitive at the game’s most important position.

Mike Wright, next up after Rogers, has moved on. Redshirt freshman Chris Parson and true freshman Michael Van Buren are the QB2 candidates. Parson, who played a little bit last year, has an edge.

Lebby’s track record suggests he can get someone ready. It also shows he can adapt while his quarterback adjusts.

There’s adjustment for everyone at Mississippi State right now though much of it has taken place. There’s enthusiasm in mastering a new system and gaining confidence. More will come after the Bulldogs experience success in games.

How’s it going coach?

Lebby, a head coach rookie, already looks like a veteran in the art of guarded responses in scrum interview sessions.

In spring practice “our guys got really good knowledge about what the expectation is, how we want to play and how we want to do what we do. There’s still a ton of growth to be made at every single position.”

“We’re so far from perfect it ain’t funny, but our guys want to get better,” he said. “We’ve got great energy in the building.”