Sabato’s Crystal Ball: Mississippi Senate race remains “Safe Republican”

Sabato’s Crystal Ball offers comprehensive, non-partisan political analysis from the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics ran by its founder and director Larry Sabato.  The publication keeps tabs on presidential elections, along with every race for the U.S. Senate, House of Representatives, and state governors. Besides forecasting the winners, the Crystal Ball provides analysis of trends in American politics and elections.

Following Tuesday’s latest round of primaries across the nation, Sabato’s group released its updated U.S. Senate rankings as Republicans and Democrats fight for the majority.

According to the Crystal Ball, Mississippi remains ranked as “Safe Republican,” meaning in their assessment incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith is a lock to win in November over her Democrat challenger Mike Espy.

While Espy has been able to raise more money than he did in his 2018 run, much of it has come from outside of Mississippi. Hyde-Smith, however, maintains a 2 to 1 campaign cash advantage, per the July FEC filings.

As for how the rest of the U.S. Senate races are shaping up, Sabato listed 12 of the most vulnerable seats according to his analysis.

“As we examine the race for the Senate majority, we thought it’d be worthwhile to rank the dozen seats we see as the most competitive from most to least likely to change hands,” the Crystal Ball released. “As we see it right now, 10 of the 12 most vulnerable seats are held by Republicans, even as Democrats are defending the seat likeliest to flip, Alabama.”

Those seats are:

1. Alabama (D)
2. Colorado (R)
3. Arizona (R)
4. Maine (R)
5. North Carolina (R)
6. Iowa (R)
7. Montana (R)
8. Georgia (Regular) (R)
9. Michigan (D)
10. Texas (R)
11. Georgia (Special) (R)
12. Alaska (R)

“The reason is basically that, of the three decisive Toss-ups in our ratings, we would probably pick the Democrats in at least two of them right now: both Maine and North Carolina are closer to Leans Democratic than Leans Republican,” the rating group explained. “If Democrats win those, as well as Arizona and Colorado (while losing Alabama), they would forge a 50-50 tie, with what they hope is a Democratic vice president breaking ties.”