Sid Salter
- Columnist Sid Salter writes that the potential deportees would account for almost 5% of the U.S. workforce.
One of the capstone issues that the majority of American voters embraced in electing former President Donald Trump to a second term in the White House was his hardline stance on immigration and his pledge of mass deportations of the estimated 12 million undocumented immigrants already living in the U.S.
Actually, at various junctures in the 2024 campaign, Trump and his surrogates offered estimates of the undocumented immigrant population of the U.S. as high as 20 million. Did the threat of mass deportation of Hispanic migrant workers who did not enter the country following legal avenues bring political consequences for the Trump campaign?
In a word, no. Latino voters in the so-called Democratic “blue wall” states moved to the Trump camp – in part supporting his pledge to secure the Southern border and enact stricter immigration laws. Pollsters found that many Latino voters resented the fact that they obeyed immigration laws to enter the U.S. legally while the undocumented ignored them.
Pollsters also found Latino voters who perceived a stronger, better economy under Trump after struggling through inflation and other economic challenges under President Joe Biden – voting economic concerns over partisan loyalties.
While Kamala Harris took 53% of the Latino majority nationwide, Trump improved his support among that demographic by 13% to take 45% – earning the record support for a Republican by Latinos set by former President George W. Bush.
But fresh from a successful return to the White House – and leading his party to power in the Senate and holding the House – Trump faces the challenges of making good on his immigration promises.
The sheer logistics of the mass deportation of 12 million undocumented immigrants is stunning. Trump has talked about using the military, in many cases the National Guard, to staff the effort. Even with those resources the task is daunting.
Deporting impoverished immigrants who in most cases are desperate people living in often dangerous foreign countries who came to the U.S. to seek a better life, will generate legal, political, social, financial, and yes, logistical issues.
In many cases, these undocumented workers risked their lives to come to the U.S. Once here, they are willing to accept low-wage, low-skill jobs that many Americans refuse to do just to get a start here that affords them a chance to have a better life.
As Mississippians have witnessed, labor brokers entice immigrant laborers to come here to provide labor for jobs that native Americans are slow to accept. There is an undeniable and ready market for immigrant labor (legal or otherwise) in this state and nation.
In Mississippi, immigrants are willing to gut our chickens, plant our trees, process our catfish, harvest our sweet potatoes, perform the hardest construction labor, cook our food and wash our dishes in restaurants, and clean our rooms in our hotels. The companies extending jobs to those immigrants profit from their labor.
The Council on Foreign Relations reports that more than 2 million refugees from Central America’s turbulent “Northern Triangle” (El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala) have fled the region. That reality has made the region unstable and forced residents with families and children to flee and brave the treacherous trek north to the U.S. seeking a better, safer life away from the extortions of gangs and organized crime in their home countries.
For the second Trump administration, the potential deportees would account for almost 5% of the U.S. workforce, including large shares of the labor for food and fiber agriculture, construction, hospitality and the vacation industry.
In addition to the impact on the U.S. labor market, Trump critics point to the potential cost of the mass deportations, estimated at $88 billion annually and as much as $968 billion over the next decade. Economic experts worry about the impacts on U.S. economic growth and inflationary forces from the policies.
Economist Peter Simon at Northeastern University in Boston said he fears specific holes in the labor force after deportations begin: “People who build houses, people who are in lawn care, people who do daycare, people who put on roofs — all of these kinds of services are just going to go. You’re not going to be able to find a plumber, an electrician or anybody who can do this kind of work.”
Voters gave President-elect Trump a mandate to grow the economy and secure the borders. Accomplishing the latter may generate obstacles for the former.
Sid Salter
