New Y’all Politics poll shows Tate Reeves leading primary and general election ballots

Polling from Impact Management Group commissioned by Y’all Politics shows Lt. Governor Tate Reeves with a substantial advantage in the Republican gubernatorial primary as well as holding a 12 point advantage in a hypothetical matchup (48/36 with 12% undecided) over Attorney General Jim Hood.

The poll was done with live callers (as opposed to IVR polling) with appropriate splits between land line and cell phone.  It tested likely voters on several questions including their preferences in voting in a primary, Right Track/Wrong Track, Republican gubernatorial primary ballot, and two hypothetical general election ballots.

Reeves is polling 30 points ahead over primary opponents Bill Waller, Jr. and Robert Foster.  Digging deeper into the numbers, Reeves is showing nearly double the ballot intensity over Waller among decided voters.

In the general election ballots, both Reeves and Waller bested Hood in a hypothetical matchup.  Reeves was +12 over Hood with 12% undecided.  Waller was +7 over Hood with nearly 17% undecided.

Analysis

Both Reeves and Hood have been touting internal polls.  Hood has gone so far to make it a huge thrust of his fundraising.  However, this is the most extensive poll of the 2019 cycle that’s been independently conducted and publicly released.  Both the GOP gubernatorial challengers and the Democrat establishment have been trying to sell the narrative that there is widespread voter dissatisfaction.  However, the Right Track data is over 50% statewide.  Notably, there is a large gender disparity on the direction of the state.  Men are 61% right track while women are only at 38% right track.

Politically, Bill Waller, Jr., and those close to him have been pushing the argument that Reeves is not electable in November.  The results of this poll would seem to punch a hole in that political argument, although he does outpoll Hood himself.

To the extent that a general election between Reeves and Hood gets close, David Singletary may be a vote detractor from Hood likely in the 3-4% range.

The poll conducted between June 10-14  surveyed likely voters using live calls (as opposed to IVR).  56.23% of respondents were contacted via landline telephone, and 43.77% were contacted by cell phone.  The poll was only weighted for age.  The poll demographics featured 66% white voters and 34% black/other voters and 51% Republicans, 29% Democrats and approximately 20% Independent/Other.  More information and details are provided in the survey results below.

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