- Have hat, will run for Governor. Commissioner of Agriculture Andy Gipson became the first candidate to publicly announce for Mississippi’s highest office. We break down his candidacy and the political dynamics heading into 2027.
Former legislator. Securities lawyer. Part-time farmer. Gospel recording artist. Minister. All describe Agriculture Commissioner Andy Gipson — a renaissance man, if the Gaithers count as renaissance. In Mississippi, they likely do.
Could Governor be next on the list? While lots of people have been dipping, and re-dipping, their toes in the water, Gipson is the first to toss in his ten gallon cowboy hat, announcing his candidacy for Governor late Wednesday on social media:
The election for Governor is more than two years out, but the aggressiveness of State Auditor Shad White in seeking out supporters and donors — he’s relentless — is forcing others to move earlier than they would probably like.
Money is the mother’s milk of politics and the risk for late movers is that the usual suspect donors will already be locked up when they come to call. This is particularly true of darkhorse candidates that aren’t always top of mind when the race is discussed. Gipson counts in that category.
He brings a folksy, pro-MAGA brand likely to resonate with many Mississippians. He’s also got traditional conservative bona fides from his time in the Legislature, where he proved a staunch defender of unborn life and the Second Amendment, and a consistent proponent for keeping taxes low.
The Challenge
Gipson is one of the more talented orators among the current crop of statewides — think Phil Bryant as a baritone. What’s not clear is how much that matters in an era where campaigns typically are won by the deepest pockets able to afford the best ads. And historically, raising money has not been his strong suit.
His annual campaign finance report filed in January showed just $238,000 cash on hand. By contrast, Lt. Governor Hosemann, Attorney General Lynn Fitch and Auditor Shad White all raised over $1 million last year, and at the time of reporting, were sitting on considerable stockpiles. White led the trio with nearly $3 million cash on hand.
In 2023, both Governor Tate Reeves and his Democratic challenger Brandon Presley raised and spent over $12 million a piece. Reeves is term-limited from seeking re-election. Some talented grassroots candidates have come close in recent years to knocking off bigger bank accounts but have fallen short.
READ MORE: Campaign finance reports show the race is on for Mississippi’s highest offices in 2027
The Billionaire in the Room
Among statewide elected officials, Hosemann, Fitch and White have drawn the most mentions as would be replacements for Reeves. But the inside track could belong to a political neophyte that can write a large check.
Enter billionaire businessman Tommy Duff, who along with brother Jim, built his father’s Southern Tire Mart into a national behemoth before expanding to a number of other successful business ventures. Duff made waves last year at the Neshoba County Fair and has not stopped. He’s presently speaking all over the state, most recently at the Grand Opening of the Pass Christian Buc-ee’s.
The newly formed Duff PAC made a number of investments in municipal races across Mississippi this election cycle, none bigger or more strategic than in Hugh Keating’s successful campaign for Gulfport Mayor. Any election watcher worth his or her salt can tell you that the Gulf Coast is essential to win a statewide election. It’s delivered big for Republicans through multiple cycles.
If Duff runs, and is willing to make a substantial seed investment, it will help grease the skids both to raise money and box out other candidates. Donors typically don’t like to throw money away when it appears their horse cannot keep up in fundraising.
It should be said that Duff’s resources are an advantage, if he’s willing to use them. But that advantage alone does not make him invincible. There’s still a lot people don’t know about him, including what he believes on important issues.
He is advised by the same political team that has advised Hosemann. The crystal ball is murky, but I would be surprised if both run in the end. Instinct says it’s one or the other.
Reordering the Race
If Hosemann runs, he will face questions about his age. He will be 80 at the time of the 2027 election and suffered a very public health scare this year when he collapsed from behind the lecturn of the Mississippi Senate.
Hosemann would also face his stiffest challenge to date from his right flank. In 2023, former State Senator Chris McDaniel came within 8 points of Hosemann for the Republican nomination for Lt. Governor. McDaniel, a talented grassroots politician in his own right, carried baggage from past U.S. Senate races, big fundraising deficit, and some undisciplined hanger-ons to within a breath of forcing a runoff.
If the current assumed field remains intact, White is likely to play the role of Hosemann’s conservative inquisitor. He won’t be short of money to make the case and won’t be undisciplined. But if recent experience tells us anything, White will be every bit as aggressive.
Meanwhile, Fitch could emerge the victor of such a scrum. Sort of a “let the boys fight it out” kind of thing. A whole bevy of Republican women will be rooting for her.
But there’s also a universe in which Duff enters the field, puts dollars on the board, and effectively convinces someone like White and/or Fitch that discretion is the better part of valor. White, in particular, is young and has time to matriculate — even though my sense is his patience for “waiting his turn” may be small.
In a scenario where Duff’s resource advantage narrows the field, a darkhorse like Gipson, former House Speaker Philip Gunn, or Congressman Gregg Harper could emerge to play a game of David versus Goliath.
Down Ballot
Secretary of State Michael Watson’s restraint places him in a good position among the group of officeholders looking to climb the ladder. All indications are that he set his sights on Lt. Governor in 2027 and has not wavered as others reached higher. Minus the prestige of Governor, the Lt. Governor role is every bit as powerful, if not moreso, when it comes to dictating policy.
There is certainly a scenario where some of the would-be gubernatorial candidates decide the Lt. Governor’s race is an easier hill to crest. A Watson-White race would be intriguing. There are also rumblings that Treasurer David McRae may be eyeing the contest. McRae, in many ways, flies under the radar. But McRae’s workman like, has a smart team, and like Duff, could self finance. (For the uninitiated, McRae’s family sold the McRae’s Department Store).
Another name frequently mentioned as a potential candidate for Lt. Governor is Senator Briggs Hopson, a Republican from Vicksburg. Hopson has amassed tremendous respect and power in the chamber as Appropriations Chairman. Almost everyone likes him, which is rare in politics.
The challenge for Hopson would be the same challenge faced by Charlie Ross when he ran against Phil Bryant for Lt. Governor, or by Billy Hewes when he faced off against Reeves for the same post. No matter how good the legislator, it’s just darn tough to beat a current statewide’s name ID and fundraising prowess.
Then there are the roles being vacated by those looking to move up. If the chatter I hear is any indication, visions of statewide sugar plums are dancing in lots of lawmakers’ heads. More on that later.
An Opening for Democrats
In politics, as in life, dominance breeds complacency and complacency leads to failure. This reality should scare Mississippi Republicans. Republicans have dominated for the last 10-15 years. The Mississippi Democratic Party has been plagued by dysfunction for some time, but a complementary shadow infrastructure is being methodically built.
While that infrastructure failed to deliver on the biggest prize of this year’s municipal elections, the Gulfport mayoral, it helped Democrats outperform expectations across Mississippi last Tuesday.
READ MORE: Democrats have good night in Mississippi mayor elections
Democratic insiders may be salivating over a race where none of the Republican candidates — save Duff — would likely be able to match the resources raised by Reeves in successive cycles. What’s more, a crowded field could create a circular firing squad that leaves wounded whoever emerges as the Republican nominee. It could also serve to drain donor dollars before the general.
Assuming Brandon Presley is waiting in the wings for another bite at the apple, Democrats have a formidable candidate with a track record of raising big money. Blood in the water after a brutal Republican Primary could accelerate the out of state giving that fueled Presley’s first campaign. National Democrats increasingly see Mississippi as a “cheap” place to experiment, with attractive demographics.
It’s early. Plenty of moving pieces. But some interesting dynamics emerging. Stay tuned.
