Mississippi Elections: Republicans to grow super-majority in House 

Mississippi Republicans on track to pick up two to three seats in State House, growing already dominant super-majority.

All 122 seats in the Mississippi State House will be on the ballot this year. There just won’t be much competition by the time we get to the November 7 general election.

Republicans currently hold a 77-42 majority in the chamber, with three independents.

Here is a look at where things stand post-qualifying deadline. 

Most races for House seats are without serious contests. Republicans do not face a Democrat in seventy-four races. With due respect to third party and independent candidates, the GOP is a virtual lock to win seventy-three of those seats.

The one potential exception is District 64. Rep. Shanda Yates was elected as a Democrat in 2019, defeating longtime Republican Rep. Bill Denny. She left the Democratic Party last session, and is running as an independent this cycle. Amile Wilson is running as a Republican for the seat. Yates has proven she can win the district with a “D” next to her name. The intrigue will be how she competes with an “I” next to her name. In many ways, she has proven that the independent moniker is fitting in her first term in office, often aligning with Republicans on economic issues and with Democrats on social issues.

There are only four races in which Republican incumbents have drawn Democratic challengers. Reps. Sam Mims (HD 97), Carolyn Crawford (HD 121), Jeff Hale (HD 24) and Bill Kinkade (HD 52), will face Democrats Thompson Benton (HD 97), John Dedeaux (HD 121), David Olds/Sandy Kerr (HD 24) and Dianne Black (HD 52). With Speaker Philip Gunn retiring from the Legislature, HD 56 became an open seat. After rumors of a crowded Republican field to replace Gunn, only Clay Mansell qualified as a Republican. He drew as a Democratic challenger Sharon Moman. The race to replace outgoing Rep. Dana Criswell also drew both Republican and Democratic candidates, with Justin Keen and Jimmy Wallace qualifying as Republicans and Jarvis Cook qualifying as a Democrat. In each of these races, the expectation is that the Republican will prevail.

Additionally, Republicans will pick up at least two seats previously held by Democrats. Long-time Democratic Rep. Tommy Reynolds is not seeking re-election. His district, District 33, was moved from the Delta to Harrison County as a part of redistricting. Three Republicans and no Democrats have qualified. Celeste Hurst will capture District 75 for Republicans. Held by Democrat Rep. Tom Miles for three terms, he opted against a tough re-election.

The biggest challenge to Republicans will be other Republicans. There are thirty-two (32) contested Republican primaries in the House.

Democrats do not have a Republican opponent in 39 races. But even when they do, much like the Republicans, the incumbent party should be fine. One notable Democratic seat is HD 57, currently held by Ed Blackmon. Blackmon qualified, but so did his son Lawrence. This is a similar setup to what occurred in the Mississippi Senate, where Barbara Blackmon (Ed’s wife) and their son Bradford qualified. One can only surmise that the parents will withdraw from these races having handed off their seats to their children. It’s the kind of thing that would normally draw some attention.

Finally, I mentioned one independent in Shanda Yates above, but there is another. Rep. Angela Cockerham opted to run as an independent four years ago rather than facing a Democratic challenger in the primary. Like Yates, Cockerham is close to the Republican leadership, naturally irritating some Democrats. She won re-election as an independent, and this year, she didn’t even draw an opponent. 

Tallying it up, Republicans are likely to finish with 79 seats. A win by Wilson in District 64 would push that number to 80.