With the historic 2012 Mississippi legislative session wrapped up, Republicans and conservatives have a whole lot of good to hang their hat on.
Among the successes: redistricting sailed through both sides without a discouraging word; state budget negotiations (yes, including education and healthcare) were the quietest, most effectively managed in years; and the first step toward curtailing the Attorney General sweetheart deals was approved. There are other highlights but these three alone are enough to set many conservative minds at ease.
Once out of session, these Republicans legislators will be met with support and appreciation by most Mississippians. Just as the voters intended last November, change came to the Capitol and it has been positive for the state, that is if you’re a conservative.
This has to be frustrating to those in the old Democratic guard. They have gone from starter to riding the pine in just two election cycles showing that a majority of Mississippians now understand that Mississippi Democrats are really no different from California Democrats; Mississippi Democrats just ride the fence a little better.
Thankfully, the voters are not allowing “Southern Democrats” to have it both ways. Voters are insisting that they shoot straight on policies and be forthright on where they actually stand, something they’re not accustomed to doing.
Senate Democrats have mostly fallen in line with the conservative majority under the leadership of Lt. Governor Tate Reeves. The tension between liberals and conservatives in the Senate has been far less than in years past. The only true drama in the Senate this session came from within the majority party as residual effects of a tough election year still had some jockeying for power and influence. While I’m certain some still hold a slight grudge, they have learned to play nice. Reeves has proven conclusively that he’s the most powerful man in Mississippi politics.
As far as redistricting, most Democrats are pretty happy with their redrawn districts and none of them want to run again anytime soon. However, you can bet your last peso that a redistricting lawsuit will be filed, most likely by an outside sympathizing organization. House Democrats are unlikely to lead that fight though they might half-heartedly chip in. However, the fact that the plan fully complies with the Voting Rights Act, increases minority representation, and makes more compact districts while significantly reducing split precincts gives such liberal challenges a slim to none chance of gaining any ground outside of seeking to stir animosity and score cheap political points.
We’ll now see just how closely knit Democratic Attorney General Jim Hood, Congressman Bennie Thompson and House Democrats are with the Obama administration. The Department of Justice will have to review the redistricting plan as well as Voter ID. What transpires will be a lesson in influence and political favoritism any political science professor could appreciate. The problem for everyone is that if the DOJ jumps into a fight over redistricting and voter ID, it’s actually good politics for both Obama and Mississippi conservatives. The most likely scenario is a lot of “huffing and puffing” but at the end of the day, it won’t be much of a fight.
Hood has also said that he will sue to oppose the limitations imposed by the Sunshine Bill. He’ll surely have House Democrats’ support in doing so. But given Hood’s last performance in front of the Supreme Court on his pardon arguments, perhaps he ought to put out a RFP to find lawyers to represent his office on this one.
Here are a few predictions in true Y’all Politics fashion:
1) Outside groups will challenge the redistricting plan and lose.
2) There will not be another legislative election this year.
3) Voter ID will stand up to the challenges after some sort of legal skirmish.
4) Democrats will continue to try and improve on their political ground game and organization. However, the fact remains that it’s their policies that have relegated them to second tier status. Only when they figure that out will they start to come back.
5) Republicans will control both chambers of the legislature for at least the next decade.
6) Tate Reeves will be the next Governor of Mississippi in 8 years barring any major missteps (and there’s likely not to be any).
7) House Republicans will tweak their leadership structure slowly but methodically.
8) Charter Schools will eventually pass. Governor Phil Bryant may well call a special session to address this item but only if the votes are assured.
9) No bond bill will come in a special session or the next regular session unless the House and Governor Bryant reach Tate Reeves’ number. If it does come, it will be a low number ($100 million or so).
10) Any illegal immigration legislation will wait until the federal Supreme Court rules. If it’s positive, the legislation will pass next session, if not sooner in a special session.
Top 5 2012 Legislative Session Winners:
1) Tate Reeves
2) Senate
3) Phil Bryant
4) House Republicans
5) Merle Flowers and Bill Denny (Senate and House redistricting heads)
