cbsnews.com – Alan Nunnalee has strong base
So how good could 2010 be for Republicans running for the House of Representatives?
A phenomenal year is now in the cards, which is obviously not the same as saying that it will be a phenomenal year. In any off-year, discussion of the following year’s House races usually frames the battle for control of the chamber as a reflection of national mood. But even after elections that brought dramatic swings in the two parties’ fortunes – 1994, 2006 – the ascending party wonders if it let winnable seats slip through its fingers. In the end, control of the House comes down to 435 unique races taking place in a national climate favoring one party or the other.
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A strong candidate at the top of the ticket rarely single-handedly determines the winner in a House race, but there are a couple of states where senatorial or gubernatorial races might affect turnout. There’s Nevada, where Sen. Harry Reid will be running for reelection (with miserable approval ratings) and his son Rory Reid may be the Democratic nominee for governor. In the 3rd CD, incumbent Democrat Dina Titus is vulnerable, but a candidate the GOP was high on, bank executive John Guedry, unexpectedly dropped out last Saturday, citing an unspecified family issue. An odd wrinkle to watch in a district with one of the highest foreclosure rates in the nation: How many 2006 and 2008 voters still live where they did during those elections?
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There are some other interesting races strewn around the map. Rep. Walt Minnick, of Idaho’s 1st District, is attempting to vote carefully, but he will still be running as a Democrat in a heavily Republican district against Bronze star-decorated Iraq War veteran Vaughn Ward. In Tennessee’s 8th District, Blue Dog John Tanner’s consistent voting with Nancy Pelosi has brought farmer and gospel singer Steve Fincher into the race; Fincher has raked in $100,000 fairly quickly. Last year, Tanner ran unopposed, while McCain won his district by 13 percentage points. In Louisiana, a slew of Republicans and Democrats are running for the 3rd District seat being vacated by Democrat Charlie Melancon; he is running for the Senate, leaving an open seat in a heavily Republican region. In Mississippi’s 1st District, state senator Alan Nunnelee has a strong base of support to challenge freshman Rep. Travis Childers. In Michigan, Tim Walberg is aiming to win back the seat he lost in 2008 by three-tenths of a percentage point, in a state the McCain campaign abandoned early.
An NRCC source mentioned that sometimes when the organization is recruiting a candidate, the aspirant will ask about what kind of support the party can offer. The answer is that allocation of party resources is usually a late-game decision; the GOP wants to put its money where and when it will make the most difference. The hope, strangely enough, is that come next fall, the NRCC will have too many competitive races to choose among.
CBS
9/29/9
Magnolia Tribune
