For the enigmatic Mr. Kiffin, a decision looms

• Lane Kiffin is expected to announce Saturday whether he will be staying in Oxford or taking the head coaching job at LSU. As the decision looms, Ole Miss fans are left wondering if the coach who brought them to the precipice of the College Football Playoffs is reformed or not.

When the dust settled at Davis Wade Stadium on a cool day in late November, the Rebels of Ole Miss stood victorious, 38-19, over their in-state foes at Mississippi State. The game came with the theatrics of a stolen jersey, a bench clearing brawl, and accusations of video espionage. So, basically, an Egg Bowl.

Trinidad Chambliss, the Division II transfer from Ferris State, engineered another masterful performance. Arguably the best story in college football this year, Chambliss threw for over 350 yards and four touchdowns, with no turnovers and some clutch scrambles.

Oklahoma State transfer De’Zhaun Stribling hauled in two scores, exhibiting NFL-level body control and awareness on both. Midway through the fourth quarter, Deuce Alexander, a Wake Forest expat, made the most of an under thrown ball from Chambliss — stopping on a dime to catch the ball and then turning on track-speed after burners in an 88-yard race to the end zone. Kewan Lacy, who leads the nation in touchdowns, was beastly throughout.

The 2024 Rebels were supposed to be “The Last Dance,” led by Jaxson Dart and seven other stars whose names got called during the NFL Draft. The 2025 Rebels returned almost no starters. Commentators bandied about words like “rebuilding year.” Prognosticators predicted a middle-of-the-pack SEC finish.

2024’s NFL thoroughbreds faltered three times, including in heartbreaking fashion to inferior Kentucky and Florida teams. Visions of playoff sugar plums were dashed.

But in 2025, on an island of misfit toys assembled in Oxford, a strange thing happened. The team gelled. The Rebels defied expectations this season and just kept finding a way, their sole loss a one-score game in Athens to the vaunted Georgia Bulldogs. Long after the Starkville variant of Bulldogs vacated their home turf on Friday, a sea of powder blue remained.

The fans that lingered cheered for a team that not only captured the Egg Bowl for the fifth time in six years, but for a team that notched a program record eleventh regular season win and a berth to the College Football Playoff that eluded arguably more talented teams. On Friday night, Texas defeated Texas A&M, leaving alive the Rebels chances of making the SEC Championship Game (should Auburn upset Alabama in the Iron Bowl on Saturday).

Any other year, the chatter would be focused almost exclusively on whether this is the best season in program history. Any other year, Rebel fans would be indignantly demanding Kewan Lacy’s inclusion in the Heisman conversation. (He absolutely should be). Any other year, old timers and new timers would find themselves at loggerheads debating the accomplishments of Lane Kiffin against those of Johnny Vaught.

But it’s not any other year.

Instead, in a season that should be marked by jubilation among the Rebel faithful, the focus both inside and outside of Mississippi, is on the likelihood of Kiffin’s departure from Oxford — from his team — before even the first round of playoffs begins. A bid to Altanta could complicate the Kiffin sweepstakes timeline.

He’s the prettiest girl at the dance and everyone wants a whirl.

Moses Out of Exile

Kiffin arrived in Oxford in 2020 amid a global pandemic and with decidedly less fanfare. His journey to the stomping grounds of Faulkner has been documented with some theatrical embellisment in recent months. A heralded XOs wunderkind, with coaching royalty in his blood, Kiffin flamed out in epic fashion at each of his stops prior to arriving at Ole Miss.

Al Davis, who gave Kiffin his first big break coaching the Oakland Raiders, described the young coach as a “conman” after the experiment went awry. Kiffin was fired. A short stint on Rocky Top ended with Kiffin escaping in the dead of night for the greener pastures of California’s West Coast. Fans in Knoxville still curse his name.

Plagued by a probation that pre-dated him and a dramatic loss of scholarships, what appeared green at USC withered quickly on the vine. Kiffin was infamously fired on a tarmac in Los Angeles following a loss to Arizona State.

The setback fortuitously landed him on the coaching staff of Nick Saban at Alabama, where Kiffin transformed a “three yards and a cloud of dust” offense into a high octane, scoring machine. The honeymoon would not last. There were “ass chewings” on the sideline. Ultimately, Saban sent him packing before a National Championship game — for want of focus — as Kiffin prepared to take over at FAU.

When Ole Miss came calling in 2020, both it and Lane Kiffin were in need of some hope. The school had experienced moments of moderate success on the gridiron. But those moments were the exception and not the rule. Along the way, a neanderthal defensive line coach, a conference foe limping toward a golden parachute, and a wannabe preacher turned John all took their turns at the helm. The Rebels were now rolling the dice on a high ceiling, volatile brat.

Aboard a plane bound for Oxford, Lane Kiffin’s young son Knox chanted S-E-C. Like Moses journey from Egypt, Kiffin’s exile was over. When he arrived, he joked that he had to borrow a sportcoat. A slovenly Kiffin, a man reputed as a talker, was awkward in his initial interactions with the media. What was once brash and arrogant now seemed unsure.

New and Improved Kiffin?

But Kiffin, to his credit, transformed himself in Oxford. The hair was trimmed. The weight was lost. The clothes were upgraded. He stopped boozing. Hot yoga was introduced. And in time, the confidence returned. Only this time, it came in the form of a chill swagger. Drip in the ‘Sip.

There was just enough humility sprinkled on top of the precocious little boy that lingered still underneath. There was a sense that the man had learned hard lessons — that he had figured out for the first time in his life what was truly important.

And there was winning. More winning in a shorter period than at any time in modern Ole Miss history. When Auburn came calling in 2022, Ole Miss fans braced for the worst. They remembered Tommy Tubberville and his pine box. The distraction cost the Rebels, as the team faltered, losing four of their last five games that season.

If the ESPN documentary is to be believed, it was Kiffin’s children, specifically his daughter Landry, that convinced him to stay in 2022. Whatever frustration fans felt about the ordeal, it quickly melted.

The pine box had not been exumed. Ole Miss fans put it behind them. They re-embraced Kiffin.

This was, after all, a changed man. We saw him mentor young men into better versions of themselves. We watched him walk through grieving the loss of his father. We heard him vocalize the idea that he “needed Oxford and Ole Miss a lot more than it needed me.” People began to wonder if Kiffin could be the next Vaught. If he could stay and build a dynasty. If statues would be erected.

But this is not a Disney movie. Today (maybe), Kiffin will decide, again, if the grass is greener somewhere else. At some level, it seems unfathomable that a coach would walk away from an uncompleted masterpiece — a playoff run and a National Championship chance — in hopes of accomplishing the same somewhere else. But that is what is on the table. And it’s all that anyone is talking about.

A person reading the tea leaves in recent weeks might conclude Kiffin is already gone.

Stay or Leave, Ole Miss Faithful Hope Kiffin Will See the Light

Is LSU a better job? Historically, yes. Louisiana’s population is bigger. They have more athletes than Mississippi, and with no real in-state rival, less competition for those athletes. They also have a bigger, wealthier alumni base every bit as sold out, if not moreso, to the success of the program.

But the Tigers are coming off a disastrous run with Brian Kelly, a man who just a few years ago left the No. 5 ranked Fighting Irish without finishing the season because he believed his chances at a National Championship were better in Baton Rouge. In fact, Kelly’s decision to leave Notre Dame high and dry amid a run is the closest parallel to the decision before Kiffin.

Both the governor of Louisiana, Jeff Landry, and their boosters are meddling in the operation of the program at an unprecedented level. It’s also not clear in the NIL/portal era, how much the in-state talent pool and player development really matter. If Kiffin’s experience in Oxford tells us anything, it matters much less than it did.

By contrast, Ole Miss has overlooked the failures — like the collapse in 2022 as Kiffin played footsie with Auburn, or three losses last year with, what was on paper, the most talented Ole Miss team ever. It has also given Kiffin the keys to the kingdom, free from the type of interference he can expect down the road. An early adopter of the collective model, the school has put together one of the best NIL programs in the nation and built one of the most lauded (and expensive) rostrums of assistant coaches in the SEC.

Ole Miss won’t be outbid for Kiffin’s services. And Kiffin would be stepping away from a team at its pinnacle, from an unfailingly supportive environment, for what is at best unknown, and at worst, a fiery crucible. If Kiffin should fail to deliver at LSU, the experience with Kelly shows they won’t hesitate to bring down the axe (and then try to screw you out of your contract).

‘How’ as Important as ‘What’

If Kiffin announces he is heading to Baton Rouge today, there will be heartbreak in Oxford and throughout Mississippi. As has been the case for the last several weeks of Kiffin drama, the questions about whether Kiffin actually changed, or whether it was all a carefully constructed PR campaign, will only intensify.

No reasonable person thinks Kiffin owes the Rebels a lifetime commitment, though most Rebel fans would welcome it. Kiffin is a grown man free to make the decisions he thinks are in his and his family’s best interests. But the ‘how’ is as important as the ‘what.’

In recent weeks, Kiffin flashed signs of an unreformed man. His posting on X included a photo of hats in Ole Miss colors bearing a “Kiffin 2026” message. He reshared posts about how both Ole Miss and Florida fans wanted him. He went on Pat McAfee’s podcast to discuss the feeding frenzy over him. In a press conference, he openly derided Ole Miss fans for not showing up for a game against FCS opponent Citadel.

If you’re leaving, trolling your fans with messages suggesting you’re coming back is a bad look. If you’re saying you don’t want to distract from your team, posting about how much other schools want you flies in the face of that message, and is more than a bit narcissistic. If you’re telling the press you won’t discuss your job search, going on a seemingly scripted podcast to do just that is at odds. If you’re going to tell Ole Miss fans how much you “love” them, throwing out a disingenuous argument about attendance for an FCS opponent is bush league.

Kiffin, himself, has ratcheted up the potential for bitterness should he decide to depart. There will be a contingency of people will be rooting for his failure. The only thing Americans love more than a redemption story is a good comeuppance.

Was it all an act, down to the carefully constructed ESPN documentary? Possibly. I think the more likely scenario is that what we see with Kiffin is the all too human struggle between who we aspire to be and the worst parts of our nature. Kiffin’s human condition struggle is just playing out in front of millions of eyeballs.

The press conference after the Egg Bowl was good insight into who Kiffin wants to be. He was contemplative. In a moment of vulnerability, he spoke about how he wished his dad was there for guidance. It seemed unscripted, unguarded and real.

What Next for Ole Miss

The kind of emotions elicited in recent weeks and the kind of emotions that will come should Kiffin leave only occur as coping when there is a real sense of loss. Kiffin leaving would hurt the Ole Miss football program, the university, the city of Oxford and the state of Mississippi. His impact on enrollment and his broader economic impact cannot be oversold.

But it’s bigger than dollars and cents. In a state often maligned, Kiffin proved Mississippi can compete and win. For that, he deserves appreciation, regardless of his ultimate decision.

It’s a game. It shouldn’t matter this much. But anyone who claims it doesn’t isn’t paying attention.

Finally, a practical word. A lot of commentary has occurred in recent weeks whether Kiffin should be allowed to coach out the playoffs should he announce he is leaving. In the last 48 hours that has ratcheted up as ESPN host after ESPN host has questioned why Ole Miss would not let Kiffin finish. It’s the kind of question that evinces that the network is engaged in propaganda on behalf of Kiffin, or his agent, Jimmy Sexton. They know the answer.

The high school signing period begins on December 2nd. The transfer portal opens in early January. A decision to allow Kiffin to coach out the playoffs would be a decision to setback Ole Miss recruiting in a dramatic way for next year. There’s no plausible way to expect Kiffin to be recruiting for the Rebels when he is committed to coach somewhere else next year. The same could be said of assistants who might follow him to his destination.

To compound the issue, the pool of coaches available to replace Kiffin, should he leave, will only continue to shrink. Already a considerable amount of talent is off the board, having either resigned with their current schools or having been hired on at new programs.

Finally, Kiffin has built a reputation as the “Portal King.” Ole Miss Athletic Director Keith Carter would be committing malpractice to allow a declared Kiffin to continue hanging around Ole Miss facilities with players he could recruit to come with him.

Will it hurt the Rebels in the CFP for Kiffin to leave? Of course, including potentially downgrading their seeding. But the long-term risks to the health of the program are much greater in allowing him to finish out.

For now, we wait.