Sid Salter
- The undercounts in Mississippi and Florida happened. But finding a practical remedy so long after congressional seats were apportioned and several election cycles held may prove impractical.
The Supreme Court has been asked to weigh in on the question of whether the federal Census Bureau relied too heavily on “imputation” – a statistical method used to insert missing individuals into official population counts – in achieving results in the 2020 Census that resulted in undercounts in six states, including Mississippi.
Leading the legal fight is Florida Congressman Byron Donalds, a Republican gubernatorial contender in the Sunshine State, who claimed in federal court that Florida had been wrongfully denied an additional congressional seat and Electoral College vote because of the statistical methods used in the 2020 census. Donalds is affiliated with America First Legal, the ultra-conservative law firm founded by Stephen Miller, currently a key adviser to President Donald Trump.
Donalds and his supporters hit a significant snag in their legal battle in July. The Florida Phoenix’s Mitch Perry reported on July 8: “The Republicans alleged that a proper count would have given Florida an additional U.S. House seat and an additional vote in the Electoral College but for the “vast use” of a statistical method known as imputation. However, for the second time in six months, the U.S. District Court for the Middle District of Florida dismissed the case, this time with prejudice, finding that any further amendment to the pleadings ‘would be futile.’”
The dismissal meant that the federal court in Florida would not hear any additional arguments in the case. But on August 6, the matter was appealed to the nation’s highest court in the case styled University of South Florida College Republicans, et al, v. Lutnick. The defendants in the case are Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick and the acting director of the U.S. Census Bureau.
According to Census data, Florida was one of six states undercounted in 2020 — Florida, by 3.48%, or approximately 760,000 people. In their complaint, the plaintiffs argued the Census Bureau relied too heavily on “imputation.” The Census Bureau said the method was used when an address was confirmed to be occupied, but no direct demographic data was collected by Census personnel. Other states with significant undercounts in the 2020 Census were: Arkansas (5.04%), Illinois (1.97%), Mississippi (4.11%), Tennessee (4.78%) and Texas (1.92%).
Census data revealed significant net overcount rates in eight states — Delaware (5.45%), Hawaii (6.79%), Massachusetts (2.24%), Minnesota (3.84%), New York (3.44%), Ohio (1.49%), Rhode Island (5.05%) and Utah (2.59%). For the other 36 states, Census data did not reveal statistically significant net over- or under-count rates. The Florida lawsuit set for Supreme Court review alleges that the 2020 count was unconstitutional and violated federal law because it relied on imputation, distorted congressional representation, and diluted the vote.
Why does the 2020 Census matter and particularly why does it matter in Mississippi? Despite significant recent economic growth, Mississippi remains saddled with the status as the poorest state in the union based on median income and poverty rates.
That means that the federal census determines how much Mississippi’s share of more than half a trillion dollars would be after the counting was completed. The more Mississippians not counted, the fewer federal funds our state receives for roads and bridges, public healthcare such as Medicaid and Medicare, Pell Grants, Head Start, public housing, food stamps, and a host of other population-driven federal spending programs.
In 2019, Mississippi leaders expressed concern about the Census. Then-Gov. Phil Bryant created the Mississippi Complete Count Committee through executive order. That order stated that: “it is essential that accurate data be collected from all Mississippians, including groups of people who have typically been underrepresented, including many young children, low-income individuals, military personnel, non-native English speakers, minorities, residents in newly constructed developments, and rural residents.”
At the federal level, maps of so-called “hard-to-count” areas show that in parts of the state where federal funds are in highest demand, response to the actual census counts is the lowest. Poverty, insularity, and fear are key drivers of an undercount in the Mississippi census. Enumerators who are afraid to enter areas where residents don’t look like them remain a problem. There are language and cultural bias barriers for the state’s Hispanic and Asian citizens.
The undercounts in Mississippi and Florida happened. But finding a practical remedy so long after congressional seats were apportioned and several election cycles held may prove impractical, as the Florida federal courts previously ruled – and that’s saying nothing about the statute of limitations.
