(Photo from Shad White on Facebook)
- If White and Gipson run for governor they could split the conservative vote and provide a path for a more centrist candidate. How will President Trump factor into the equation?
Earlier this week, I wrote about how the race for Governor in 2027 is taking shape. The caveat, of course, being that we are more than two years out. Candidates and their odds of success will invariably change.
The column covered how a crowded field could create a circular firing squad among Republicans and provide an opening, however small, for Democrats. But a crowded field could also disrupt the ideological dominance of conservatives within the primary process.
READ MORE: Gipson in for Governor, What’s the State of Play for 2027?
With limited exception, being the “moderate” in Republican primaries in Mississippi is not the path to success. It’s why Mississippi politicians go to such great lengths to protect their right flank. No one wants to be “out-conservatived.”
This is something Governor Tate Reeves instinctively understood about Mississippi in his election strategy. The winner of statewide elections is very likely to be Republican, and the winner of Republican nominations is very likely to be the most conservative, viable candidate. There are exceptions, but it’s a good formula.
Among the sea of potential candidates, State Auditor Shad White had been positioning himself as the carrier of the conservative torch. Agriculture Commissioner Andy Gipson’s entry into the race gives him the most direct competition for that mantle.
Social media is a pretty poor predictor of political outcomes. I’ve seen candidates with massive followings and engagement strike out, over and over. But it can tell you something about sentiment.
Following Gipson’s announcement two patterns emerged on social media. First, many of former State Senator Chris McDaniel’s most loyal supporters were quick to align behind Gipson. Second, a lot of commenters supportive of Gipson’s candidacy said things like “either Gipson or Shad.” (Several are going to have to learn that Gipson is spelled with a “p” and not a “b”).
Short version: If you’re Shad White, Gipson’s decision changes the dynamics and forces a sort of new struggle over who is most MAGA or most conservative (those two things are not the same to me, but they have come to be used interchangeably by others).
If both end up running, there is a real possibility that they split the conservative vote. That could open a path — at least to a runoff — for more centrist candidates.
The Donald Could Break the Tie
One obvious gamechanger for any candidate vying for the state’s top post would be an endorsement from one Donald J. Trump, President of these United States. Whatever happens in the country, I do not see the Republican electorate in Mississippi losing its affection and unfettered loyalty to Trump.
Should he make an endorsement, that person would become an instant frontrunner — though not all of President Trump’s endorsements have found success at the ballot box. It’s also not clear that he would endorse in a crowded field featuring several candidates swearing fealty.
There are several people with good relationships with the Trump administration among them, including our current governor, Tate Reeves, and our former governor, Phil Bryant. Bryant helped secure several Mississippians cushy gigs within the Trump administration and was himself recently appointed to help lead a commission tasked with revamping FEMA processes. If he has a horse, that person could benefit from Bryant’s proximity to the President.
The other obvious path to the good favor of the President is through political contribution. Love it, hate it, the reality is that politicians are responsive to people who support their political careers. Someone capable of making big contributions to Trump’s political apparatus — say a Tommy Duff — might, at a minimum, gain access and/or keep him out of the endorsement game. Those “non-endorsement” decisions sometimes sound like “I have a lot of friends in this race.”
Lagniappe
When I listed potential candidates earlier this week, I heard from several folks who said I should have included Gerard Gibert. Unlike the others, I’d simply not heard he was seriously considering the race. I am told pretty definitively that he is. Gibert was a successful businessman, building the IT firm Venture Technologies, before selling it to ConvergeOne in 2019.
In the years since, Gibert has emerged as someone with a keen mind for public policy — regularly providing both testimony to the Legislature and speeches to civic organizations on wide litany of topics. His voice has been amplified through a midday talk radio program on SuperTalk called “Middays with Gerard Gibert.” Gibert has also been strategic in building political relationships, frequently hosting fundraisers for both Republican candidates and causes at his home.
If Tommy Duff is in the race, it will be harder for Gibert to carve out space. His natural lane is “outsider businessman.” But that, too, will be Duff’s lane.
