Former Mississippi Gov. Ronnie Musgrove’s run for the U.S. Senate would seem to benefit from the record crowds and jammed polling places generated by Barack Obama presidential campaign.
Obama has mounted a massive effort to increase black turnout in the South — an effort that could bear fruit for Democrats in Republican-leaning states such as Virginia and Georgia. But in Mississippi, higher voter turnout could be a different story for Democrats.
In most election cycles over the past 30 years, Republicans tend to benefit more from any increased voter turnout in Mississippi. In gubernatorial races in the state during that period, higher turnout has always resulted in larger increases in Republican voters than Democratic voters.
This trend is more pronounced in presidential elections, when differences between the parties are more dramatic. The state’s recent history leaves Republican Sen. Roger Wicker unconcerned about a potential wave of new Democratic voters. “I think there will be a huge turnout among people that are enthusiastic about Sen. Obama, as well as people who are very much troubled by the policies he’s espoused,” Wicker said in a recent interview. He has held the Senate seat since 2007, when he was appointed to replace Sen. Trent Lott.
Andy Taggart, a Madison, Miss., attorney and author of the book “Mississippi Politics: The Struggle for Power, 1976-2006? also suggested that higher turnout would do little to help Musgrove. “Frankly, I think that the prospect is that it would cause Musgrove to lose by a larger margin than he otherwise would,” said Taggart, who served as chief of staff to former Mississippi Gov. Kirk Fordice, a Republican. “The more starkly polarized the election becomes as it nears Election Day, the more turnout is driven upward, and the more Republican candidates have benefited from that in the last 30 years.”
Musgrove himself was reticent to discuss increased black turnout from Obama’s candidacy, mentioned only new youth voters when asked about Obama’s effect on turnout in the African-American community and never specifically used Obama’s name. “When anyone can generate excitement for voting, I believe that’s good,” he said.
WJS Washington Wire
9/4/8
