Past and Precedent: What Makes This Mississippi Special Election Interesting
Republicans may entertain the notion they can find someone who can excite voters in both Tupelo and the Memphis suburbs, but that’s unlikely. Though they are both generally conservative and Republican, the two areas are light years apart culturally and economically.
The surest way for Republicans to retain the seat is to rally around someone from the southern or central part of the district. That will keep populist conservatives voting Republican without sacrificing the support of DeSoto County conservatives, who surely would see any Republican as preferable to any Democrat.
In the jungle primary, however, all candidates run together and without party identification. That means two Republicans (presumably a tea party type and a pragmatic conservative) could meet in the runoff, or, possibly, a tea party-backed Republican from the Memphis suburbs and a populist moderate Democrat, like Travis Childers.
The first scenario would guarantee Republicans hold the seat but could well add another tea party conservative to the House to make things difficult for Speaker John A. Boehner. The second scenario would force Republican strategists to hope that Obama is so unpopular that GOP voters in the central and southern parts of the 1st District can’t bring themselves to vote for a Democrat in the special election.
Stuart Rothenberg Blog
2/17/15
