This is just a quick and dirty analysis of the 3rd race, but I am putting this out there for further analysis and review. Here are the numbers. I added two columns to analyze where Harper beat Ross and where Ross beat Harper to determine the vote differentials in those counties only.
Harper looks like he will carry Rankin in the runoff. The question is by how much. Harper has to run up the score there to have a chance. If you look at the numbers through the rest of the district, Ross either won those counties or kept it very close in places he didn’t win. He didn’t lose badly anywhere. The counties that Harper did win like Rankin, Pike, Lawrence and Scott and Lauderdale, he didn’t win by much of a margin. Ross blew Harper out in Adams, Hinds, Madison, Webster, Marion, and even beat him in Leake and Simpson (which is in Harper’s backyard).
My bottom line . . . Harper has to win in Rankin by 1500+ votes in the runoff to have a chance. He only beat him by 800 votes there last night. Harper has to run up the score in Rankin, Lauderdale and Pike (where the votes are). Since Ross is from Rankin, that’s a tall order. Harper also has to make major inroads into Madison, Hinds, Oktibbeha and Adams and he’ll need to raise some quick money to do that. He will also look like he will need help in the form of a Landrum endorsement to get that support. No question Harper will get his votes out in his core areas, but he cannot get blown out of the rest of the district like he did last night. If he does, the numbers will catch up to him . . . even in a runoff. Ross has to keep it close in Rankin, Lauderdale and Pike and get his votes back out in the places he did well.
