Five things for tonight’s presidential debate

Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump will square off tonight in the first, and potentially only, presidential debate before November’s election.

Tuesday night’s debate will take place at the National Constitution Center in Philadelphia, beginning at 8 PM CST on ABC.

The candidates will participate under the same rules that governed Trump’s June CNN debate against President Joe Biden. This means there will be no studio audience. Microphones will only be turned on when it is the candidate’s turn to speak.

“World News Tonight” anchor David Muir, along with ABC News Live “Prime” anchor Linsey Davis, will moderate. Here are five things to watch for tonight:

1. Biden’s Shadow

Conventional wisdom is that presidential debates do very little to move the needle. But if June’s debate between Trump and Biden was any indication, a truly disastrous debate performance can be fatal.

President Biden’s shadow now looms large in Philadelphia. Despite best efforts within the punditry to lionize him for stepping aside, Biden remains unpopular with the American public. Generational inflation, looming economic concerns, a border crisis, and a world on fire all weigh against a continuation of the Biden administration.

61 percent of likely voters in a recent New York Times/Siena College poll said the next president should represent a major change from Biden.

Despite serving in the White House for the last 3.5 years, Vice President Harris has presented herself on the campaign trail as a change candidate. But only 25 percent of respondents in the New York Times poll believed Harris represented a major change from Biden.

Former President Trump will undoubtedly attempt to tie perceived failures within the Biden administration to Harris. The balancing act for him will be to do this while not coming across as if he’s wishing Biden were still his opponent.

2. Competing for the Middle

Both candidates have bases that are shored up. The race for the White House will be won in just a handful of states by just a handful of people. Recent polling in the battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania show razor thin margins separating the two candidates.

Heading into tonight’s debate, the fine line Trump and Harris will walk is between giving their bases red meat while attempting to appeal to the skeptical voter.

For Trump, this likely looks like trying to moderate tone and speak to the “kitchen table” issues Americans are struggling with right now. For Harris, who previously supported a wide range of far left policy positions, it likely means packaging herself as a pragmatic moderate.

3. Faltering Momentum

Vice President Kamala Harris was forced to drop out of the 2020 race for the White House before the Iowa Primary. She became the nominee for the Democratic Party after the 2024 primaries were completed in Biden’s favor, meaning she has never won a single state’s primary.

Still, in the aftermath of her anointing, she experienced a considerable burst of momentum that carried through last month’s Democratic National Convention. Recent polls show that momentum is faltering. The aforementioned New York Times/Siena College poll has Trump up by 2 points (still within the margin of error).

While Trump is a known commodity — people either love him or hate him — Harris remains a bit of a mystery to a chunk of the population. 31 percent of likely voters in the NYT/Siena poll said they needed to learn more about her.

To date, she’s only sat for one interview — a tandem job with vice presidential nominee Tim Walz. Republicans have been critical of her unwillingness to answer tough questions. How she acquits herself under the bright lights of Tuesday night’s debate could go a long way in either silencing critics or sharpening their attacks on her acuity for the post.

4. On the Issues

Trump will try to score on inflation, the border, and foreign conflicts. Don’t be surprised if tax policy comes up at some point, too, as the Trump Tax Cut & Jobs Act is due to expire at the end of this year. Or at least that is what his handlers are hoping for. Whether the former president can stay on message is anyone’s guess. He was benefited in the debate against Biden by CNN’s rules that prevented a lot of the squabbling that was front-and-center in 2020. Those rules are back tonight.

Harris will attempt to affix blame for the economy to Trump-era policies, make the dubious case that the Biden administration has overseen an economic recovery, and argue that Democrat efforts to address the border were scuttled by Trump loyalists in Congress this year. Expect a fair dose of conversation around abortion rights and questions about the legitimacy of the U.S. Supreme Court.

5. The Biggest Threat to Democracy

Kamala Harris was a prosecutor in a former life. Donald Trump has faced considerable legal scrutiny in the lead up to the election, including conviction on 34 counts of falsifying business records.

Will Harris prosecute the former President on stage by accusing him of criminal activity? How will January 6th factor?

To date, legal efforts to derail Trump have only galvanized his supporters. But might they work on that small fraction of voters who will decide the election?

A common theme in attacks on Trump to date has been that he represents a “threat to democracy.” Can Trump rebuff those attacks and make the case that Harris represents the bigger threat?

We’ll find out tonight.