Parrish’s 2023 College Football Picks and Predictions: Week 13

Veteran sports writer Parrish Alford takes a look at the Week 13 matchups with Ole Miss at Mississippi State and Troy at Southern Miss.

Last time out pick record was 2-0, making 25-5 overall for the 2023 season. 

Let’s take a look at the Week 13 matchups as Ole Miss and Mississippi State meet for the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving night and Southern Miss closes the season out with Troy at The Rock on Saturday.

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Ole Miss at Mississippi State

Time: 6:30 p.m. TV: ESPN

This will be Egg Bowl No. 30 for me.

My first beat at The Meridian Star after landing in Mississippi in 1989 was Southern Miss.

In 1991 Mississippi State hired Jackie Sherrill as coach. It didn’t take long for him to get under the skin of Ole Miss coach Billy Brewer who assured America – at least those in the Southeast – that  Sherrill was a habitual liar.

That was one spring night at Northwood Country Club in Meridian when, as sports editor then, I sent former Ole Miss radio voice Stan Torgerson out to cover his good friend Brewer at an alumni event.

I suspect Billy’s friendship with Stan loosened him up enough – could have been other loosening mechanisms I suppose – to lay it on Jackie. Whatever the case, we were tickled that Billy chose to make news in Meridian.

Later that year I covered the Egg Bowl for the first time. It was historic not because of feuding coaches but because the game returned to campus. State won 24-9 at what was then known as Scott Field.

I’ve heard State fans moan about this game for a month, and there’s been evidence to support the moaning.

Some say they expect defeat. Others won’t give up hope that easily.

The others are right to not give up hope because this game gets weird, but they need to approach Thanksgiving night with appropriate expectations.

The Bulldogs stopped the bleeding last week with a 41-20 win over Southern Miss, but they didn’t play especially well.

It did give State its fifth win and leaves the Bulldogs just one win from bowl-eligibility. 

Let’s be clear. The chance to play in the Birmingham Bowl is not what will motivate State this week.

Instead, the joy that comes from popping the air in your rival’s balloon will motivate the Bulldogs.

Ole Miss has a chance at a 10-2 season for the second time in three years, a chance to solidify a New Year’s Six bowl game.

Lane Kiffin needs these things. The Lane Luster had faded a bit at the start of this season after he was distracted in a four-game skid at the end of last year.

A second 10-win season will help restore that aura, and Kiffin will continue to be mentioned for big jobs.

Without that aura he’s a B list candidate at Texas A&M.

Will Rogers will be motivated. He was only 12-for-27 passing against the Golden Eagles, but there were at least five drops. 

Rogers was a bit rusty after more than a month away from live action because of an injury to his non-throwing shoulder, but State’s whole offense looked rusty in the passing game as though the targets weren’t used to having balls thrown they could catch. It’s been a while.

Rogers will need to be sharper if State is to spring the upset.

The Rebels will need a sharper offense too.

For all that Kiffin has accomplished as Ole Miss coach he’ll only be 2-2 against the in-state rival if the Rebels lose this game.

Beating State likely doesn’t matter to him as much as would that elusive win against Alabama, but losing to State matters a whole lot to his fan base.

State won 24-22 in Oxford last year largely because Kiffin and Charlie Weis Jr. couldn’t figure out Zach Arnett’s defense most of the game.

State limited that vaunted Ole Miss run game to 78 yards and 2.0 yards per attempt.

Well, people have figured out that MSU defense this year.

Ole Miss was unimpressive in its first half against Louisiana-Monroe last week as it led just 7-3 at the break.

That changed in the second half. Ole Miss needed to rout ULM, not for the sake of stats but for the sake of momentum. 

Georgia’s defense shuts down a lot of people as Tennessee can attest, but had the Rebels been just pedestrian in the second half last week it would have been two-straight games that the explosive Ole Miss offense lacked fireworks.

Now the Rebels can claim a little bit of momentum for their short road trip.

It’s a more diverse Ole Miss offense this season.

Quarterback Jaxson Dart ranks in the top 10 in passing efficiency and passing yards per completion. He’ll have some opportunities if the Rebels get a little play from a banged-up patchwork offensive line.

Numbers and matchups suggest Ole Miss wide receiver Tre Harris could have a big game.

You’d rather be at home than on the road for any game, but venue hasn’t mattered much in this rivalry.

Through the years I’ve often leaned too much on the matchups and not enough on the emotions when trying to predict the winner.
State will need some emotion Thursday night.

Prediction: Ole Miss 28, Mississippi State 25

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Troy at Southern Miss

Time: 11 a.m. TV: ESPNU

An upset of the Sun Belt West Division champs won’t change a dismal season for the Golden Eagles but could be a needed stamp on the future for Will Hall.

It would be quite an upset.

The Eagles aren’t full strength at quarterback and as such were unable to exploit a vulnerable secondary in last week’s 41-20 loss at Mississippi State.

The game was actually much closer than that. Southern Miss was six points back in the middle of the fourth quarter, but as soon as they made it a one-possession game the Eagles’ defense gave up a couple of explosive runs and suddenly trailed by 14 again.

The lateral on a pick-six skewed things.

The Trojans haven’t lost since dropping back-to-back games at No.15 Kansas State and at home against Sun Belt darling James Madison in Weeks 2 and 3.

Troy’s 31-24 home win over Louisiana-Lafayette last week was the first time in two months it hasn’t won by at least two touchdowns.

Trojans coach Jon Sumrall is having his name tossed about for other jobs.

It will be hard for the Golden Eagles to run the ball against a Troy defense that ranks No. 11 nationally with 97.4 rushing yards allowed per game.

And the passing game on its best days looks pedestrian right now.

One thing that’s been clear the last few weeks is Hall hasn’t lost this team. There’s effort and desire.

The season, though, has been a disappointment considering that Southern Miss was trending up at the end of last year, Hall’s second.

I think he can get it turned around though probably not this Saturday.

Hall needs more playmaking at quarterback and more physical line play. Those two things often go hand-in-hand.

Prediction: Troy 35, Southern Miss 14

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Recipe of the Week

Leftover Turkey Sandwich

The Contents

• Smoked turkey breast
• Texas Toast
• Miracle Whip spread
• Dill pickle chips
• Pepper
• Swiss cheese
• Lettuce
• Tomato
• Bacon

The Process

Butter two slices of Texas Toast and place in toaster. Upon removal lather both slices with Miracle Whip. Add three of your best remaining breast slices from Thanksgiving along with three slices of bacon, pickles and Swiss cheese. Place in microwave long enough to melt cheese. Add lettuce and tomato if you prefer.