Re: US Senate MS GOP Primary Runoff
Thursday evening (June 5th) we conducted a statewide survey of GOP primary voters in Mississippi. We asked an equal number of Cochran and McDaniel supporters from the June 3rd Primary about their plans to vote in the runoff election, which candidate they planned to support and which candidate they thought would win. We surveyed 832 households with a MOE of +/-3.3%
Major Findings:
At this point in the race, supporters of both candidates are energized and optimistic.
o Equal percentages plan to return to the polls for the runoff.
o Equal percentages believe their candidate will win.
A weighted calculation of survey results shows McDaniel has a 3.0% lead over Cochran. This lead is within the survey’s margin of error.
Which candidate do you plan to support?
Thad Cochran
47.6%
Chris McDaniel
50.6%
Undecided
1.8%
Grand Total
100.0%
Important Points to Remember:
Different assumptions about gender and age mix of the June 23rd turnout will alter these results.
The candidate support totals noted above are made from a weighted sample that assumes turnout at 53% women; 36% ages 65 and older; ages 18 to 64 at 64%.
The race is fluid and the election is more than two weeks away. In this unusual campaign, we don’t know if and when another bombshell will drop and how it would impact voters.
We surveyed only voters who participated in the June 3rd GOP primary. Mississippi law allows for anyone who didn’t vote in the June 3rd Democratic Primary to vote in the GOP Primary runoff.
Other Notes:
These surveys include only landline phones.
These surveys have a three-part screen for participation. We surveyed only phone households with a voter participating in all three of the 2008, 2010 and 2012 GOP primaries. We asked each participant if (s)he voted in the recent GOP Primary. We asked which candidate they had supported and continued the survey for only those who had cast their ballots for Cochran or McDaniel.
The sample is 96% Caucasian, 2% African American and 2% other ethnicity. The survey oversamples women and older voters with weighting to produce more reliable results.
6/7/14
