Is Iran poised for disruption?

• Ashby Foote writes that Iran and its Mullahs has been a major thorn in the side of world peace and progress for 45 years.

We are still in the fog of war but the US Air Force B-2 bomber bunker buster strikes in Iran on June 21 may have set in motion major political disruptions. Paradigm shifts matter and this could be a big one. If the Mullahs, who have ruled Iran as a theocracy for 45 years, lose their grip on power the world’s political and economic chessboards will be scrambled. 

Vladimir Lenin is credited with saying, “There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” A turnover of power in Iran could be one of those precipitous ‘decade moments’. But regime change is risky, geopolitics is hard and ceasefires are not declarations of peace. Diplomats still have important roles to play and details to work out to achieve a lasting peace.

Iran and its Mullahs has been a major thorn in the side of world peace and progress for 45 years. They have fomented terrorism through their proxies the Houthis, Hamas and Hezbollah.  Along with key allies, Russia, China and North Korea Iran has acted as a political block that has shaped world trade and politics in the middle east for much of those 45 years. That block is now at risk. 

A new more open government in Iran could bring dramatic change similar to the fall of the Berlin Wall in November 1989 and the collapse of the Soviet Union in December 1991. But there is still much uncertainty about Iran and other middle east countries. Political paradigm shifts are hard to predict and harder still to control as they unfold. The worst-case example is Libya which became a failed state after the assassination of Muammar Qaddafi in 2011.

The Iranian Theocratic regime now appears isolated. Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. China is tangled in tariffs. North Korea is a second-tier partner and a long way away. The Mullahs’ proxy terrorists are down but not out. Meanwhile turmoil and unrest still linger across the region especially in war torn countries like Syria and Iraq.

Political paradigm shifts have far-reaching consequences both intended and unintended that are hard to discern in the short term. If Iran breaks free from their theocracy and current ties to Russia, China and their numerous terrorist proxies it would be a game changer. For sure it would scramble the world’s political map that has evolved over the past 50 years. It would also shakeup the world’s map of energy flows that is necessarily closely related to the world’s political map. Shaking up the flows of oil and liquified natural gas would be an economic game changer as well. The world has been in a struggle over tariffs now for six months but that is primarily a financial exercise. Untangling and rearranging the world’s energy and refining infrastructure is fraught with risk but pregnant with opportunity.

Kinetic conflicts, even those of very short duration can be a catalyst for quantum change.

The last 110 years has been an acid test for governance across the world. World War I was the final chapter for monarchies as a competitive form of governance. The 25 years after WWII saw the demise and dissolution of the world’s colonial empires. The 20^th century kept map makers very busy. That a theocracy like Iran would be a player in the middle of global trade and politics in the 21^st century is an anachronism. The Persians and other ethnic groups that make up Iran’s population of 90 million deserve better. And so does the rest of the world.