- Employers considering long-term investments care deeply about whether a state can produce capable workers year after year. Education policies that improve attainment help answer that question.
Governor Tate Reeves seems to be hanging his legacy on economic and workforce development in the great state of Mississippi. He has been able to tout billions of dollars in investment from advanced manufacturing and large-scale technology projects like AI data centers. Those announcements are huge and they signal momentum in Mississippi’s future. The Magnolia State elected leaders should embrace school choice as part of the equation. According to a new analysis, a universal education savings account (ESA) program in Mississippi could deliver hundreds of millions to even billions in long-term economic benefits.
If Mississippi wants to keep people in-state, attract new residents, and sustain that growth long-term, state leaders must also focus on the talent pipeline. Jobs don’t exist in a vacuum, rather, they require educated, skilled, and prepared Mississippians to fill them.
By improving educational attainment outcomes, private school choice helps states build a stronger workforce, increase long-term economic returns, and improve outcomes well beyond the classroom.
At EdChoice, my colleagues Dr. Martin Lueken & Dr. Michael McShane recently released a publication titled “Estimating the long-run impact of a universal ESA program in Mississippi.” It’s seven pages long, includes several tables, and yes – it gets into the weeds a bit. But The takeaway is simple: education policy decisions made today will shape Mississippi’s workforce and economy for decades to come.
Most education reform debates fixate on short-term metrics like test scores or per-pupil spending. Those measures have their place, but they miss the bigger picture. The EdChoice analysis focuses instead on educational attainment—high school graduation, college enrollment, and college completion, because those outcomes are directly tied to long-term economic and social benefits.
Here’s how the analysis works.
First, the researchers look at what existing research shows about private school choice programs. Across multiple studies, these programs are associated with higher high school graduation rates and increased college enrollment and completion. Importantly, these benefits don’t stop with participating students. There is also evidence of positive spillover effects for students who remain in public schools.
Next, the brief models what a universal ESA program might look like in Mississippi using realistic participation rates. The analysis examines three take-up scenarios, roughly 1%, 5%, and 10% of students, which translates to about 4,300 to 43,600 students participating.
From there, the researchers draw on the broader research literature to estimate how even modest improvements in graduation and college completion translate into long-term outcomes. Why does this matter? Because graduating from high school or college is strongly linked to higher lifetime earnings, increased tax contributions, better health outcomes, and lower crime rates. Those outcomes have real economic value, not just for individuals, but for the state as a whole.
When those factors are combined, the results are eye-opening.
Depending on participation levels and attainment gains, the estimated long-run economic return ranges from approximately $215 million to more than $3.2 billion per academic year. These figures reflect the cumulative value of increased earnings, higher tax revenue, improved health outcomes, and reduced public costs over time.
To be clear, this is not a claim that these dollars show up overnight or as a single line item in the state budget. These are long-term gains, realized gradually as students move through school, enter the workforce, and contribute to their communities. But that’s exactly the point. Economic development isn’t just about what happens this quarter or this election cycle, it’s about what kind of state Mississippi becomes a generation from now.
The analysis also highlights something often overlooked in school choice debates: students who stay in public school students can benefit, too. Even small increases in college enrollment and completion among public school students generate substantial economic value, reinforcing the idea that private school choice can strengthen the entire system.
There’s a well-documented disconnect in private school choice programs between impacts on test score outcomes and longer-run attainment outcomes. If Mississippi is serious about workforce development, this research on long-term effects deserves more attention. Employers considering long-term investments care deeply about whether a state can produce capable workers year after year. Education policies that improve attainment help answer that question.
Governor Reeves and state leaders are right to prioritize economic growth. The data suggest that improving educational outcomes through expanded choice could be one strong tool to support that goal. And this objective can be achieved while strengthening the public school system at the same time, not only in terms of academic outcomes, but also by improving behavioral outcomes like boosting attendance and reducing suspension rates.
Mississippi has an opportunity to think big about education, workforce readiness, and long-term prosperity. The numbers in this report don’t just tell a fiscal story, rather they tell a story about people, opportunity, and the kind of future Mississippi wants to build.
