Visions of sugar plums as 2027 race for governor starts

Less than a year removed from Mississippi’s last gubernatorial election and with three years remaining in Governor Tate Reeves’ final term, would-be successors are jockeying for position.

It’s early, but such is the nature of politics these days. Once one candidate begins stirring, others are forced to join for fear of missing out on commitments, fundraising dollars, and earned media that can help shape a race.

In this case, Auditor Shad White was the first mover. Before the ink was dry on headlines declaring Reeves the winner of his race against Democratic challenger Brandon Presley, White was telling people he intended to run for governor in 2027.

An aggressive fundraiser and methodical campaigner, White has also demonstrated a willingness to mix it up with potential rivals. For much of the year, he trained sights on Attorney General Lynn Fitch, long rumored as a possible replacement for Reeves. But at the Neshoba County Fair this week, he picked a new target, sitting Lt. Governor Delbert Hosemann.

Borrowing a page from Donald Trump, White has started calling Hosemann “DEI Delbert.” During the course of his Neshoba speech, the State Auditor was critical of Hosemann’s failure to pass a piece of legislation pushed by White that would have banned spending on DEI programs at Mississippi’s colleges and universities.

Hosemann, who will be 81 when the next governor is inaugurated, noted he is term limited as Lt. Governor, but has plans to run for another statewide office.

“We decided if we’re where people still want us to work for them, we want to keep working for them. We’re term limited on this one, so it’d be another office. Another statewide office. I’ll put it that way,” Hosemann said.

Hosemann did not respond to the specific charges made by White, but did take a wry crack at his height — noting that he needed to adjust the microphone upward after the “short guy” spoke. In the press gaggle after his Neshoba speech, Hosemann also took a swipe at White for writing a book — Mississippi Swindle — about his office’s investigation into the TANF scandal. Hosemann said he was glad White could make it to Neshoba from his book tour.

In terms of the “statewide office” Hosemann would pursue, governor is the most logical conclusion. Hosemann has hinted at wanting to be in the U.S. Senate in the past, though. The path is much less clear at this stage and presumably would be predicated on a Trump victory, Senator Cindy Hyde-Smith receiving a cabinet appointment, and a Reeves’ appointment.

That’s a lot of “ifs,” but if the first two unfold, look for someone like State Treasurer David McRae’s name to pop up. McRae is, in many ways, unassuming, but he has been loyal to Reeves throughout and could easily self-finance an expensive campaign if needed.

The Elephant in the Room

Speaking of people who could self-finance expensive campaigns, Tommy Duff did not speak at the Neshoba County Fair, but his presence was felt as he worked his way around the fairgrounds, visiting cabin to cabin. Whispered for months as a potential candidate for governor, Duff is openly telling people that he is seriously considering it.

Duff and his brother, Jim, built a tire company started by their father Ernest Duff, Southern Tire Mart, into an empire. Along the way, the Duffs have diversified into a wide range of other successful companies, including KLLM and TL Wallace Construction.

The Duff brothers are regularly listed by Forbes as the two wealthiest people in Mississippi, with an estimated net worth of $3 billion each.

While substantial, their political giving over the years is dwarfed by the investments they have made at Mississippi’s public universities. Those gifts include a $26 million donation to Ole Miss, a $15 million donation to Mississippi State, and $30 million in pledged donations to Southern Miss. This sort of giving has a way of making powerful and influential friends, the type who can help win elections.

Duff’s entry into the race would likely scare off several challengers, or at least make it difficult for them to raise money. If Duff can stroke a $20 million check in support of his own campaign, for instance, other prominent donors are unlikely to throw good money after another candidate who cannot compete with that war chest.

Duff also has the newness factor. He has a clean policy slate from which to invent himself and few political enemies. For folks tired of Mississippi’s political conveyor belt, he could be a breath of fresh air.

A Dark Horse

While Duff could send some scurrying from the race, it might present an opportunity for another. There are candidates who struggle in crowded fields, but who perform well as a “contrast candidate” heads up. Agriculture Commissioner Andy Gipson could be that candidate.

Gipson more than any current statewide office holder has the political acumen of Phil Bryant, and Phil Bryant had an uncanny knack for understanding Mississippi voters. What can seem silly to “snobby” political insiders works across vast swaths of the state.

Gipson told reporters at the Neshoba County Fair that he was considering a run for governor. He said he was praying about it and had not made his mind up yet.

One could easily see the sitting Agriculture Commissioner running a populist, David versus Goliath, race. A securities lawyer, Gipson has successfully built an Andy Griffith “aw, shucks” persona, complete with a cowboy hat.

The Trump Factor

Gipson, and lots of other candidates, have aligned themselves strongly with Donald Trump. At present, that’s a smart political play. The former president remains extremely popular in Mississippi. The bet is that he will still be popular in 2027. Much of that depends on what happens in November of 2024.

If Trump were to lose again, will his grip on the Republican Party fade, and if so, what does that mean for candidates who have tied their identities to his brand of politics?

Other Names, Other Roles

Finally, Duff, Gipson, Hosemann and White are not the only names floating. Lynn Fitch has remained relatively quiet and was unable to speak at Neshoba, but her name still gets mentioned by political operatives as a potential candidate.

Congressman Trent Kelly could be another dark horse. Kelly would have to build statewide name identification, but is a big man with a big personality. You know when he’s entered a room and that’s an important thing for a politician running to be the top dog in the state.  

Former House Speaker Philip Gunn is another name that gets mentioned. Gunn, like Kelly, cuts an impressive gib in a room. Overcoming “out of sight, out of mind” will be hard. He’d be in a much better position had he remained on as Speaker for another term.

Finally, depending on how the game of musical chairs unfolds, openings at Lt. Governor, Attorney General, Secretary of State, Auditor, and Agriculture Commissioner may all be on the table.

Potential entrants in the Lt. Governor race include Secretary of State Michael Watson and State Senator Briggs Hopson. Department of Public Safety Commissioner Sean Tindell is rumored to be eying Attorney General. Shad White’s name has also been mentioned in connection to this post.

Time will tell, but the race is on.