Special Elections Present Peril for House GOP
This race, at the moment, looks like nothing but trouble for Republicans.
The situation is less dire in Mississippi’s 1st District — vacated by Rep. Roger Wicker (R) when he was appointed to replace Sen. Trent Lott (R).
The district, located in the northern reaches of the Magnolia State, has been held by Wicker since 1994 and went heavily for Bush with 62 percent in 2004. Even so, the 1st has some deep Democratic roots; the area was represented by legendary Democrat Jamie Whitten for the better part of five decades.
While six candidates will run in the special open primary on April 22, only two — Southhaven Mayor Greg Davis and Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers — are actively campaigning for the post.
The winner of the special election will serve out the remainder of Wicker’s term. Both Davis and Childers have already won their respective party nods for the race in November, which will decide who represents the district in the next Congress.
Interestingly, the candidates will not be identified with any party on the ballot in either the open primary or the likely May 13 runoff between the top two votegetters if no candidate gets 50 percent of the vote on April 22. The lack of party affiliation could well work in Childers’ favor as he he quite conservative and won’t have to run under the label of the national party.
A new poll by Childers’ pollster — John Anzalone — should give Democrats reason for optimism. The survey shows Davis leading the open primary with 29 percent followed by Childers at 27 percent. Former Tupelo Mayor Glenn McCullough (R) took 14 percent while state Rep. Steve Holland took seven percent.
In a head to head matchup that named Childers and Davis as well as their party affiliations, the race was a dead heat: 41 percent for Childers, 40 percent for Davis.
The x-factor in this race is the the DCCC’s ability to throw in a few hundred thousand dollars, which will be tough for Republicans to match if the race tightens.
WAPO Blog
4/10/8
Magnolia Tribune
