Sid Salter
- Bottom line, despite erosion in his approval ratings here and across the country, Trump appears to still have political coattails in Mississippi.
In Washington, Republicans and Democrats share a real concern and a real anticipation: the 2026 midterm election may become a realigning election—meaning one in which significant segments of voters change their partisan loyalty, resulting in a change in control of Congress.
Those fears are stronger regarding the U.S. House than in the Senate, but some believe both could be in play.
Yet for the 2026 midterm elections in Mississippi, the stars are aligning for a status-quo outcome. Available polling and the professional political prognosticators’ reading of the proverbial tea leaves indicate that our state’s incumbent members of Congress appear headed for re-election and aren’t facing particularly close challenges.
In other words, color the midterms in Mississippi with a flamboyant shade of black and white. What does that mean? It means what it has often meant historically in Mississippi – despite more than a half-century of demonstrable progress on the thorny issue of race in our state, the lowest common denominator in politics often remains race.
Looking at the usual suspects that handicap federal politics in Mississippi – including Real Clear Politics, the Cook Political Report, Nate Silver, Larry Sabato and others – white Republican incumbent U.S. Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith of Brookhaven is expected to successfully defend her Senate seat. Assignment to the Senate Appropriations and Senate Agriculture committees, along with a key seat on the Defense Appropriations Subcommittee, assuredly influences those predictions.
But a look at GOP President Donald Trump’s approval ratings, including how demographics influence midterm election predictions, is instructive.
Amid an expensive and unpopular military conflict with Iran and a prolonged period of inflation at the gas pumps and in the grocery aisles, Trump’s approval ratings are dropping even in states like Mississippi that gave him some of his highest vote totals each time he sought the White House. Civiqs, the left-of-center online polling and data analytics company whose numbers are nonetheless considered highly credible, listed Trump’s national approval rating at 34% this month, while his disapproval rating was 60%.
As of Sept. 15, 2026, white voters alone nationally gave Trump a 40% approval rating and a 53% disapproval rating. In Mississippi, white voters alone gave Trump a 63% approval rating and a 28% disapproval rating on the same date. Mississippi voters overall gave Trump 57.9% of the vote in 2016, 57.6% in 2020, and 60.9% in 2024.
So it should come as no surprise that, like Hyde-Smith in the Senate race, Mississippi’s three white incumbent Republican congressmen – First District U.S. Rep. Trent Kelly of Tupelo, Third District U.S. Rep. Michael Guest of Brandon, and Fourth District U.S. Rep. Mike Ezell of Pascagoula – are all projected to win their midterm races. The same is true for black incumbent Democratic U.S. Rep. Bennie Thompson of Bolton.
Not even the influence of “kitchen table” issues like high gas prices, high food prices and rising interest rates that make it more difficult to borrow money seem to have impacted the power of incumbency, party identification, and factionalism. Historically, these pocketbook issues have impacted what appear to be “safe” races in the most unpredictable ways.
When inflation, wages, health-care costs, taxes, retirement benefits, or local economic conditions become pressing, those concerns can influence voting behavior even in states with otherwise reliably strong partisan leanings such as Mississippi.
In Mississippi, Republicans have maintained a significant structural advantage statewide since 1980, but that advantage is not immune to voter frustration over household economic conditions. Incumbents who appear politically secure still must pay attention to everyday voter concerns because economic conditions have long reshaped political expectations.
Mississippi voters may care deeply about ideology and party affiliation, but elections are often swayed by practical concerns that affect family finances, health care, education, jobs, and retirement security. When those “kitchen-table” issues become acute, they can shift electoral outcomes even in races that initially appear safe.
Bottom line, despite erosion in his approval ratings here and across the country, Trump appears to still have political coattails in Mississippi.
