The award winning YallPolitics Polling Interpretation Division has read polling results from an independent group polling on the current state of affairs in Mississippi’s First Congressional District. Here’s basically what it says.
– Rep. Travis Childers name ID in the poll was in the high 90s. Translation? Everyone in the district knows him and has an opinion of him.
– Generic Republican to Democrat ballot – 51% (R) to 42% (D). In 2008, this was reversed.
– 56% of MS-01 disapproves of the job President Obama is doing. That number is rising and likely explains bullet point #2.
Republican Alan Nunnelee, in this poll, was 24% ahead of his nearest competitor in the Republican primary. Nunnelee’s name ID was in the 50% range and his announced Republican primary competitors Angela McGlowan and Henry Ross were substantially lower. Given that disparity, Nunnelee was polled head to head with Travis Childers. Childers’ lead right now over Nunnelee was 51-42. That does not account for the name ID gap that will likely be erased during the course of a campaign. The good news for Nunnelee is that when Childers and Nunnelee were polled head to head among people who know both candidates, Nunnelee was +14 over Childers.
Childers’ challenge? It looks like he has to put some distance between himself and Obama/Pelosi. Incumbency is on his side. I think the chances of him voting for healthcare are zero, which is why it’s so puzzling that he’s hanging on to “no comment”.
Nunnelee’s challenge? Avoid a bloody primary fight and coalesce his party faithful around the common cause of putting a conservative Republican voice back in MS-01. Based on these numbers, if he can coalesce and turn them out, he could win it. He has to be magnanimous and take the high road from slings and barbs that will be predictably coming his way from the DCCC, Childers campaign and probably Angela McGlowan. In short, he has to avoid the disaster in 2008 Republican primary. Plus, he needs to keep his profile high in Tupelo which should take votes from where Childers was strong last time, assuming he clears the R primary.
Ross/McGlowan’s challenge? They obviously have to make up a large name ID gap and get their message out. That will take money and a well run campaign. McGlowan will likely have money, but the jury is certainly out on the “well run campaign” part right now. Ross has come off as someone with good conservative ideas and credentials, but he will have to raise huge amounts of money to bridge that gap. They must both get attention placed on themselves without seeming too strident to “blow the party primary” up.
Stay tuned! It’s gonna be a fun one.
Editors Note: As noted on multiple occassions, the writer of this article has made a reportable financial contribution in this race.
Magnolia Tribune
