SouthernPoli.Report – Childers may win if Flowers and Nunnalee face-off
Freshman Democratic US Rep. Travis Childers won five elections in Mississippi’s 1st District (Tupelo, etc.) last year, including a special election, a primary, a couple of runoffs and a November General Election (with 54%). Next year, he could win another one, especially if the Republicans repeat the pattern of their hotly contested primary steered chiefly by regional rivalry.
In 2008, the GOP’s Greg Davis and Glenn McCullough faced off in a runoff, which Davis won by a narrow 51% to 49%. Davis, as mayor of Southaven, hailed from DeSoto County, a suburb of Memphis, the district’s fastest growing area, and heavily Republican. The problem is, many Southhaven residents work across the state line in Memphis and are viewed as — well — outsiders by much of the rest of the district. Against a down-home, old-style Southern Democrat like Childers, Davis was at a disadvantage outside of the Southaven area. So Childers won the election by carrying 20 of the district’s 24 counties. (There is a contrary view, however, that the bitterness of the GOP runoff between Davis and McCullough, a former mayor of Tupelo, exacerbated the geographic factor and that “cleaner” primary campaigns would not produce the same lingering antagonisms.)
As Republicans are beginning to look seriously at trying to re-capture this Republican district, they once again face the prospect of a regional battle between a DeSoto County candidate, most likely state Sen. Merle Flowers, and a Northeast Mississippi contender, probably state Sen. Alan Nunnelee. If they end up in a geographic brawl, Childers is likely to go back for a second term. If, however, the Republicans can avoid a divisive primary and manage to unite GOP-leaning voters in both regions of the district, the party has a shot a regaining the seat.
Southern Political Report
6/3/9
Magnolia Tribune
