New polling shows that the presidential race has tightened since Sarah Palin delivered her vice presidential acceptance speech on Wednesday.
Both the Gallup and Rasmussen daily tracking polls reported today that John McCain now narrowly trails Barack Obama.
Yesterday’s Gallup poll results of surveys conducted before the speech showed Obama with a 49 percent to 42 percent advantage over McCain. Today’s daily tracking poll showed that lead reduced to 48 to 44 percent.
On Tuesday, the poll reported Obama ahead 50 percent to 42 percent, the first time either candidate has reached the 50 percent marker.
While the Gallup shift from yesterday is not statistically significant, other surveys also appear to show public opinion moving toward the GOP following the party’s convention.
Rasmussen reported Friday that when “leaners” are included, Obama is ahead of McCain 48 percent to 46 percent. The same comparison on Thursday has Obama ahead by 5 percentage points.
Rasmussen also found that Palin’s favorable rating of 58 percent is now a point above that of both McCain and Obama. Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden is viewed favorably by 48 percent of those polled.
A poll released yesterday by SurveyUSA, also conducted after Palin’s speech, found that independent voters now view Palin as an asset to McCain by a better than 2-to-1 ratio, 55 percent to 24 percent. It’s a remarkable shift from the day before, when independent voters were split, with 43 percent of those polled stating that Palin was an asset while 44 percent said she was a liability.
Fully three-in-four of those polled by SurveyUSA said they had heard Palin’s acceptance speech.
That finding comes as Nielsen Media Research reported that 37.2 million viewers across broadcast and cable networks tuned in to hear Palin’s speech, nearly the same share of viewer ship as for Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, who set a record of 38.4 million viewers for his convention speech last week, which in turn was quickly surpassed yesterday by the 38.9 million who tuned in to John McCain’s acceptance speech.
At Obama’s peak on Tuesday he had attained a 5-point post-convention bounce by Gallup’s measure. In the last day of polling conducted prior to the Democratic convention, the two candidates were tied at 45 percent each. Obama’s rise to 50 percent signified that he met the 5- to 6-point norm earned by a typical party nominee since 1964.
CBS News tracked Obama’s bounce at 3 points, expanded his lead to 48 percent to 40 percent, the widest spread of the general election, over the past weekend. But in a poll released yesterday and conducted Monday to Wednesday, it reported that the race was now tied at 42 percent.
Until Palin’s speech Thursday, however, neither daily tracking poll had found that McCain was closing in on Obama’s lead.
SurveyUSA’s poll found that six in 10 voters gave Palin’s speech a grade of A. In addition, 55 percent of those polled said Palin “reflects well on McCain,” while 30 percent said she reflects poorly.
By comparison, 48 percent of those polled said Democratic vice presidential nominee Joe Biden “reflects well on Obama,” while 31 percent said he reflects poorly.
Obama’s support in the Gallup tracking poll rose one percentage point after Biden’s acceptance speech at last week’s Democratic convention, while after Palin’s speech, McCain’s support had an uptick of two percentage points.
The first polling to gauge whether McCain’s convention speech altered the race will begin to be available on Saturday.
What will not be apparent until next week, however, is the extent of the Republicans’ convention bounce, or the lay of the land following the back-to-back party conventions, the first such scheduling in half a century.
Politico
9/5/8
Magnolia Tribune
